Shortlist

2026-08-16 17:05 yfinance 1832 of 2000 usable 12 candidates 1832 searchable

Each card shows what you stand to gain and what you stand to lose, computed the same way. Up is the sector median multiple; down is the cheapest quintile, or a 25% fall in EBIT, whichever is worse. The ratio between them is the shape of the arithmetic — it is not odds, and nothing here estimates a probability. The band rates the evidence, not the investment. "Strong case" means most of what can be measured checks out — it does not mean buy, and nothing here knows your portfolio, your horizon or why the market is discounting the company. Red flags outweigh a high count. Read the filings before you act on any row.

No purchase price, no date, no share count — this is an assessment of the company right now, not of your position. Your list is stored on this device only.

Order

Sorted by gap size. The gap is the distance to the sector median multiple, not expected return — and the widest gaps are usually the ones the market has the best reason for. This order puts the most heavily discounted names first, which is also where value traps live. The evidence order exists because of that.

BCRX NASDAQ
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Healthcare
Price
9.74 USD
P/E
9.4
EV/EBIT
7.7
Worst fall
97.7%
Volatility
82.2%
Below high
70.6%
+189% / -27% over 5:1

Up: at the Healthcare median multiple. Down: EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings — neither is a probability.

What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case 11/11

Most of what can be measured checks out

Fallen, business intactGrowing, not yet priced for itCheap and healthy
The 11 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

EV/EBIT of 7.7 against a Healthcare median of 20.5 — 63% below peers. Free cash flow yield 13.0%. Trading 71% below its all-time high set 2000-08-25.

Size of the gap

At the Healthcare median EV/EBIT of 20.5 instead of its current 7.7, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 179% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 760% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
  • revenue compounding at 48% over three years
  • net debt 0.5x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
  • Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says

Consensus strong buy from 11 analysts, mean target 20.82 USD, 114% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.

Targets spread 96% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.

Implied upside of 114% is unusually high. The evidence runs the other way here: stocks with the most optimistic targets tend to underperform, because the optimism bias is real and priced-in slowly. Read this as a caution, not an opportunity.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.

Data caveats
  • latest statements are 228 days old
BLBD NASDAQ
Blue Bird Corporation
Industrials
Price
64.81 USD
P/E
16.1
EV/EBIT
10.8
Worst fall
74.2%
Volatility
47.6%
Below high
20.5%
+109% / -23% 4.7:1

Up: at the Industrials median multiple. Down: EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings — neither is a probability.

What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case 11/11

Most of what can be measured checks out

Growing, not yet priced for itCheap and healthy
The 11 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

EV/EBIT of 10.8 against a Industrials median of 22.2 — 51% below peers. Free cash flow yield 8.0%.

Size of the gap

At the Industrials median EV/EBIT of 22.2 instead of its current 10.8, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 98% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 112% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9 — accounts improving year on year
  • revenue compounding at 23% over three years
  • net debt -0.7x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
  • Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says

Consensus strong buy from 8 analysts, mean target 89.12 USD, 38% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.

Data caveats
  • latest statements are 320 days old
CARG NASDAQ
CarGurus, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
Price
37.44 USD
P/E
21.4
EV/EBIT
13.6
Worst fall
78.7%
Volatility
50.6%
Below high
33.0%
+50% / -25% 2.0:1

Up: at the Consumer Cyclical median multiple. Down: EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings — neither is a probability.

What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case 10/11

Most of what can be measured checks out

Growing, not yet priced for itCheap and healthy
Against it — 1 flag
Debt has risen relative to assets every year for three years.

Read off the statements over three years, not from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell you is whether management already has an answer.

The 11 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

EV/EBIT of 13.6 against a Consumer Cyclical median of 19.6 — 30% below peers. Free cash flow yield 8.0%. Trading 33% below its all-time high set 2018-09-27.

Size of the gap

At the Consumer Cyclical median EV/EBIT of 19.6 instead of its current 13.6, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 44% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 51% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
  • net debt 0.0x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
  • Altman Z 10.6 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
  • Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says

Consensus buy from 12 analysts, mean target 41.50 USD, 11% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.

Data caveats
  • latest statements are 228 days old
ADBE NASDAQ
Adobe Inc.
Technology
Price
264.02 USD
P/E
14.7
EV/EBIT
11.7
Worst fall
79.9%
Volatility
48.0%
Below high
61.6%
+182% / -25% over 5:1

Up: at the Technology median multiple. Down: EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings — neither is a probability.

What you'd be betting onThe case rests on current earnings estimates, and analysts have been cutting them. The bet is that the cuts are finished.
Strong case 11/12

Most of what can be measured checks out

Fallen, business intactCheap and healthy
Against it — 2 flags
Debt has risen relative to assets every year for three years.
Analysts have been cutting more than raising this quarter.

Read off the statements over three years, not from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell you is whether management already has an answer.

The 12 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

EV/EBIT of 11.7 against a Technology median of 30.9 — 62% below peers. Free cash flow yield 9.4%. Trading 62% below its all-time high set 2021-11-19.

Size of the gap

At the Technology median EV/EBIT of 30.9 instead of its current 11.7, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 165% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 63% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
  • revenue compounding at 11% over three years
  • net debt 0.0x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
  • Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says

Consensus hold from 34 analysts, mean target 269.72 USD, 2% above the current price. Revisions over the last quarter have been net negative — the sell side is marking this down.

Targets spread 70% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.

Data caveats
  • latest statements are 259 days old
EEFT NASDAQ
Euronet Worldwide, Inc.
Technology
Price
73.20 USD
P/E
8.8
EV/EBIT
6.1
Worst fall
87.9%
Volatility
53.7%
Below high
57.0%

No two-sided case — see the bet below.

What you'd be betting onImplied upside of 523% is too large to trust. At this size the likeliest explanations are a data error or earnings that are about to fall, not an opportunity the market missed. Verify EBIT and market cap against the filings before reading anything else here.
Strong case 9/11

Most of what can be measured checks out

Fallen, business intactCheap and healthy
The 11 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

EV/EBIT of 6.1 against a Technology median of 30.9 — 80% below peers. Free cash flow yield 13.5%. Trading 57% below its all-time high set 2019-07-10.

Size of the gap

At the Technology median EV/EBITDA of 19.7 instead of its current 4.8, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about n/a more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 21% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • revenue compounding at 8% over three years
  • net debt 0.7x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
  • Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says

Consensus buy from 6 analysts, mean target 87.50 USD, 20% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.

Data caveats
  • latest statements are 228 days old
ERIC NASDAQ
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)
Technology
Price
10.27 SEK
P/E
1.2
EV/EBIT
0.4
Worst fall
98.6%
Volatility
44.4%
Below high
85.9%

No two-sided case — see the bet below.

What you'd be betting onImplied upside of 3964% is too large to trust. At this size the likeliest explanations are a data error or earnings that are about to fall, not an opportunity the market missed. Verify EBIT and market cap against the filings before reading anything else here.
Strong case 9/11

Most of what can be measured checks out

Cheap and healthy
Against it — 1 flag
Revenue has declined every year for three years.

Read off the statements over three years, not from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell you is whether management already has an answer.

The 11 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

EV/EBIT of 0.4 against a Technology median of 30.9 — 99% below peers. Free cash flow yield 177.8%. Trading 86% below its all-time high set 2000-03-03.

Size of the gap

At the Technology median EV/EBITDA of 19.7 instead of its current 0.3, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about n/a more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 33% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9 — accounts improving year on year
  • net debt -0.3x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
  • operating margin 17%
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
  • Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says

mean target 9.67 SEK, 6% below the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.

Targets spread 35% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.

Trading 6% above the consensus target — the sell side thinks it is expensive.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.

Data caveats
  • latest statements are 228 days old
  • EV/EBIT below 1 — almost always a data error, not a bargain
HARL.TA Tel Aviv
Harel Insurance Investments & Financial Services Ltd
Financial Services
Price
171.00 ILS
P/E
11.8
EV/EBIT
5.5
Worst fall
69.5%
Volatility
34.9%
Below high
16.9%
+97% / -21% 4.6:1

Up: at the Financial Services median multiple. Down: EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings — neither is a probability.

What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case 7/8

Most of what can be measured checks out

Cheap and healthy
Against it — 1 flag
Debt has risen relative to assets every year for three years.

Read off the statements over three years, not from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell you is whether management already has an answer.

The 8 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

EV/EBIT of 5.5 against a Financial Services median of 9.4 — 42% below peers. Free cash flow yield 16.7%.

Size of the gap

At the Financial Services median EV/EBIT of 9.4 instead of its current 5.5, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 60% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 54% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • revenue compounding at 31% over three years
  • operating margin 19%
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
  • Only 1 analyst estimate(s) — thin coverage
  • Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says

mean target 150.00 ILS, 12% below the current price. Revisions over the last quarter are balanced.

Only 1 analyst estimate(s) — too few for a consensus to mean much.

Trading 12% above the consensus target — the sell side thinks it is expensive.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.

Data caveats
  • latest statements are 228 days old
ETOR NASDAQ
eToro Group Ltd.
Financial Services
Price
28.58 USD
P/E
10.5
EV/EBIT
3.6
Worst fall
67.4%
Volatility
61.1%
Below high
62.4%
+107% / -12% over 5:1

Up: at the Financial Services median multiple. Down: EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings — neither is a probability.

What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case 9/11

Most of what can be measured checks out

Growing, not yet priced for it
The 11 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

EV/EBIT of 3.6 against a Financial Services median of 9.4 — 62% below peers. Free cash flow yield 29.7%. Trading 62% below its all-time high set 2025-06-09.

Size of the gap

At the Financial Services median EV/EBIT of 9.4 instead of its current 3.6, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 76% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 144% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • revenue compounding at 30% over three years
  • net debt -4.0x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
  • Altman Z 12.7 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
  • Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says

Consensus buy from 14 analysts, mean target 49.79 USD, 74% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.

Targets spread 110% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.

Implied upside of 74% is unusually high. The evidence runs the other way here: stocks with the most optimistic targets tend to underperform, because the optimism bias is real and priced-in slowly. Read this as a caution, not an opportunity.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.

Data caveats
  • only 313 days of price history — drawdown vs high is unreliable
  • latest statements are 228 days old
ACGL NASDAQ
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Financial Services
Price
98.71 USD
P/E
7.7
EV/EBIT
4.9
Worst fall
54.7%
Volatility
28.9%
Below high
9.6%
+106% / -18% over 5:1

Up: at the Financial Services median multiple. Down: EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings — neither is a probability.

What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case 7/8

Most of what can be measured checks out

Cheap and healthy
The 8 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

EV/EBIT of 4.9 against a Financial Services median of 9.4 — 49% below peers. Free cash flow yield 24.6%.

Size of the gap

At the Financial Services median EV/EBIT of 9.4 instead of its current 4.9, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 70% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 28% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • revenue compounding at 26% over three years
  • operating margin 27%
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
  • Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says

Consensus buy from 19 analysts, mean target 111.87 USD, 13% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.

Data caveats
  • latest statements are 228 days old
ADSK NASDAQ
Autodesk, Inc.
Technology
Price
251.66 USD
P/E
47.3
EV/EBIT
29.7
Worst fall
76.9%
Volatility
45.2%
Below high
26.5%
+11% / -54% 0.2:1

Up: at the Technology median multiple. Down: re-rating to the sector's cheapest quintile (13.7x). Both are arithmetic on today's earnings — neither is a probability.

What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case 9/11

Most of what can be measured checks out

Growing, not yet priced for it
The 11 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

Not trading at a discount to its sector on any measure this tool computes. That is a fact about the price, not a judgement about the company — good businesses spend most of their lives fairly priced.

Size of the gap

At the Technology median EV/EBIT of 30.9 instead of its current 29.7, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 4% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 40% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
  • revenue compounding at 13% over three years
  • net debt 0.1x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
What the sell side says

Consensus strong buy from 34 analysts, mean target 312.75 USD, 24% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.

Targets spread 75% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.

DLO NASDAQ
DLocal Limited
Technology
Price
14.17 USD
P/E
21.2
EV/EBIT
16.2
Worst fall
90.0%
Volatility
73.0%
Below high
78.1%
+92% / -22% 4.1:1

Up: at the Technology median multiple. Down: EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings — neither is a probability.

What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case 10/12

Most of what can be measured checks out

Fallen, business intact
Against it — 1 flag
Debt has risen relative to assets every year for three years.

Read off the statements over three years, not from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell you is whether management already has an answer.

The 12 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

EV/EBIT of 16.2 against a Technology median of 30.9 — 48% below peers. Free cash flow yield 10.2%. Trading 78% below its all-time high set 2021-08-24.

Size of the gap

At the Technology median EV/EBIT of 30.9 instead of its current 16.2, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 81% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 177% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • revenue compounding at 38% over three years
  • net debt -1.8x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
  • Altman Z 4.6 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
  • Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says

Consensus strong buy from 10 analysts, mean target 18.35 USD, 29% above the current price. Revisions over the last quarter have been net positive, which is the part of analyst output the evidence actually supports.

Targets spread 35% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.

Data caveats
  • latest statements are 228 days old
CRUS NASDAQ
Cirrus Logic, Inc.
Technology
Price
121.09 USD
P/E
14.6
EV/EBIT
10.7
Worst fall
97.5%
Volatility
61.9%
Below high
32.3%
+182% / -22% over 5:1

Up: at the Technology median multiple. Down: EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings — neither is a probability.

What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case 11/11

Most of what can be measured checks out

Cheap and healthy
The 11 criteria

Valuation

  • Cheaper than sector peers
  • EV/EBIT under 15
  • Free cash flow yield over 5%

Quality

  • ROIC over 10%
  • Operating margin over 10%
  • Gross profit over 20% of assets
  • Piotroski F-Score 7 or better

Balance sheet

  • Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
  • Altman Z above 2.6
  • Free cash flow positive

Direction

  • Revenue growing over three years
  • Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap

EV/EBIT of 10.7 against a Technology median of 30.9 — 65% below peers. Free cash flow yield 12.0%. Trading 32% below its all-time high set 2026-06-03.

Size of the gap

At the Technology median EV/EBIT of 30.9 instead of its current 10.7, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 166% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.

Business still intact
  • ROIC 30% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
  • free cash flow positive
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
  • net debt -1.4x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
  • Altman Z 12.2 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
  • Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
  • Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
  • Only 4 analyst estimate(s) — thin coverage
What the sell side says

Consensus buy from 4 analysts, mean target 165.00 USD, 36% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.

Targets spread 42% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.

Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.