Sorted by gap size. The gap is the distance to the sector
median multiple, not expected return — and the widest gaps are usually the ones
the market has the best reason for. This order puts the most heavily discounted
names first, which is also where value traps live. The evidence order exists
because of that.
BCRX
NASDAQ
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Healthcare
- Price
- 9.74
USD
- P/E
- 9.4
- EV/EBIT
- 7.7
- Worst fall
- 97.7%
- Volatility
- 82.2%
- Below high
- 70.6%
+191%
/
-27%
over 5:1
Up: at the Healthcare median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
11/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intactGrowing, not yet priced for itCheap and healthy
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 7.7 against a Healthcare median of 20.9 — 63% below peers. Free cash flow yield 13.0%. Trading 71% below its all-time high set 2000-08-25.
Size of the gap
At the Healthcare median EV/EBIT of 20.9 instead of its current 7.7, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 184% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 760% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- revenue compounding at 48% over three years
- net debt 0.5x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus strong buy from 11 analysts, mean target 20.82 USD, 114% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Targets spread 96% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Implied upside of 114% is unusually high. The evidence runs the other way here: stocks with the most optimistic targets tend to underperform, because the optimism bias is real and priced-in slowly. Read this as a caution, not an opportunity.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 228 days old
BLBD
NASDAQ
Blue Bird Corporation
Industrials
- Price
- 64.81
USD
- P/E
- 16.1
- EV/EBIT
- 10.8
- Worst fall
- 74.2%
- Volatility
- 47.6%
- Below high
- 20.5%
+108%
/
-23%
4.7:1
Up: at the Industrials median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
11/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Growing, not yet priced for itCheap and healthy
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 10.8 against a Industrials median of 21.5 — 50% below peers. Free cash flow yield 8.0%.
Size of the gap
At the Industrials median EV/EBIT of 21.5 instead of its current 10.8, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 92% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 112% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9 — accounts improving year on year
- revenue compounding at 23% over three years
- net debt -0.7x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus strong buy from 8 analysts, mean target 89.12 USD, 38% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 320 days old
CARG
NASDAQ
CarGurus, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
- Price
- 37.44
USD
- P/E
- 21.4
- EV/EBIT
- 13.6
- Worst fall
- 78.7%
- Volatility
- 50.6%
- Below high
- 33.0%
+44%
/
-25%
1.8:1
Up: at the Consumer Cyclical median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
10/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Growing, not yet priced for itCheap and healthy
Against it — 1 flag
Debt has risen relative to assets every year for three years.
Read off the statements over three years, not
from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell
you is whether management already has an answer.
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 13.6 against a Consumer Cyclical median of 19.5 — 30% below peers. Free cash flow yield 8.0%. Trading 33% below its all-time high set 2018-09-27.
Size of the gap
At the Consumer Cyclical median EV/EBIT of 19.5 instead of its current 13.6, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 43% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 51% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- net debt 0.0x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
- Altman Z 10.6 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 12 analysts, mean target 41.50 USD, 11% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 228 days old
ADBE
NASDAQ
Adobe Inc.
Technology
- Price
- 264.02
USD
- P/E
- 14.7
- EV/EBIT
- 11.7
- Worst fall
- 79.9%
- Volatility
- 48.0%
- Below high
- 61.6%
+174%
/
-25%
over 5:1
Up: at the Technology median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on current earnings estimates, and analysts have been cutting them. The bet is that the cuts are finished.
Strong case
11/12
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intactCheap and healthy
Against it — 2 flags
Debt has risen relative to assets every year for three years.
Analysts have been cutting more than raising this quarter.
Read off the statements over three years, not
from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell
you is whether management already has an answer.
The 12 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 11.7 against a Technology median of 29.8 — 61% below peers. Free cash flow yield 9.4%. Trading 62% below its all-time high set 2021-11-19.
Size of the gap
At the Technology median EV/EBIT of 29.8 instead of its current 11.7, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 156% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 63% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- revenue compounding at 11% over three years
- net debt 0.0x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus hold from 34 analysts, mean target 269.72 USD, 2% above the current price. Revisions over the last quarter have been net negative — the sell side is marking this down.
Targets spread 70% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 259 days old
HLNE
NASDAQ
Hamilton Lane Incorporated
Financial Services
- Price
- 104.24
USD
- P/E
- 28.0
- EV/EBIT
- 14.6
- Worst fall
- 62.3%
- Volatility
- 36.7%
- Below high
- 46.7%
-13%
/
-71%
Up: at the Financial Services median multiple. Down:
re-rating to the sector's cheapest quintile (4.3x). Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
9/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intactGrowing, not yet priced for it
Against it — 1 flag
Share count growing 3.8% a year — your claim on earnings is shrinking even if earnings hold.
Read off the statements over three years, not
from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell
you is whether management already has an answer.
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
Free cash flow yield 6.0%. Trading 47% below its all-time high set 2024-11-11.
Size of the gap
No usable re-rating gap: the multiple is at or above its sector median, or the inputs were missing.
Business still intact
- ROIC 44% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- revenue compounding at 13% over three years
- net debt -0.0x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
- Altman Z 4.5 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 7 analysts, mean target 133.57 USD, 28% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Targets spread 58% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
EEFT
NASDAQ
Euronet Worldwide, Inc.
Technology
- Price
- 73.20
USD
- P/E
- 8.8
- EV/EBIT
- 6.1
- Worst fall
- 87.9%
- Volatility
- 53.7%
- Below high
- 57.0%
No two-sided case — see the bet below.
What you'd be betting onImplied upside of 503% is too large to trust. At this size the likeliest explanations are a data error or earnings that are about to fall, not an opportunity the market missed. Verify EBIT and market cap against the filings before reading anything else here.
Strong case
9/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intactCheap and healthy
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 6.1 against a Technology median of 29.8 — 80% below peers. Free cash flow yield 13.5%. Trading 57% below its all-time high set 2019-07-10.
Size of the gap
At the Technology median EV/EBITDA of 19.5 instead of its current 4.8, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about n/a more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 21% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- revenue compounding at 8% over three years
- net debt 0.7x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 6 analysts, mean target 87.50 USD, 20% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 228 days old
ERIC
NASDAQ
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)
Technology
- Price
- 10.27
SEK
- P/E
- 1.2
- EV/EBIT
- 0.4
- Worst fall
- 98.6%
- Volatility
- 44.4%
- Below high
- 85.9%
No two-sided case — see the bet below.
What you'd be betting onImplied upside of 3842% is too large to trust. At this size the likeliest explanations are a data error or earnings that are about to fall, not an opportunity the market missed. Verify EBIT and market cap against the filings before reading anything else here.
Strong case
9/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Cheap and healthy
Against it — 1 flag
Revenue has declined every year for three years.
Read off the statements over three years, not
from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell
you is whether management already has an answer.
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 0.4 against a Technology median of 29.8 — 99% below peers. Free cash flow yield 177.8%. Trading 86% below its all-time high set 2000-03-03.
Size of the gap
At the Technology median EV/EBITDA of 19.5 instead of its current 0.3, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about n/a more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 33% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9 — accounts improving year on year
- net debt -0.3x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
- operating margin 17%
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
mean target 9.67 SEK, 6% below the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Targets spread 35% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Trading 6% above the consensus target — the sell side thinks it is expensive.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 228 days old
- EV/EBIT below 1 — almost always a data error, not a bargain
ETOR
NASDAQ
eToro Group Ltd.
Financial Services
- Price
- 28.58
USD
- P/E
- 10.5
- EV/EBIT
- 3.6
- Worst fall
- 67.4%
- Volatility
- 61.1%
- Below high
- 62.4%
+119%
/
-12%
over 5:1
Up: at the Financial Services median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
9/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Growing, not yet priced for it
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 3.6 against a Financial Services median of 11.0 — 68% below peers. Free cash flow yield 29.7%. Trading 62% below its all-time high set 2025-06-09.
Size of the gap
At the Financial Services median EV/EBIT of 11.0 instead of its current 3.6, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 97% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 144% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- revenue compounding at 30% over three years
- net debt -4.0x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
- Altman Z 12.7 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 14 analysts, mean target 49.79 USD, 74% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Targets spread 110% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Implied upside of 74% is unusually high. The evidence runs the other way here: stocks with the most optimistic targets tend to underperform, because the optimism bias is real and priced-in slowly. Read this as a caution, not an opportunity.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- only 313 days of price history — drawdown vs high is unreliable
- latest statements are 228 days old
ACGL
NASDAQ
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Financial Services
- Price
- 98.71
USD
- P/E
- 7.7
- EV/EBIT
- 4.9
- Worst fall
- 54.7%
- Volatility
- 28.9%
- Below high
- 9.6%
+120%
/
-18%
over 5:1
Up: at the Financial Services median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
7/8
Most of what can be measured checks out
Cheap and healthy
The 8 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 4.9 against a Financial Services median of 11.0 — 56% below peers. Free cash flow yield 24.6%.
Size of the gap
At the Financial Services median EV/EBIT of 11.0 instead of its current 4.9, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 94% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 28% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- revenue compounding at 26% over three years
- operating margin 27%
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 19 analysts, mean target 111.87 USD, 13% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 228 days old
ADSK
NASDAQ
Autodesk, Inc.
Technology
- Price
- 251.66
USD
- P/E
- 47.3
- EV/EBIT
- 29.7
- Worst fall
- 76.9%
- Volatility
- 45.2%
- Below high
- 26.5%
+7%
/
-54%
0.1:1
Up: at the Technology median multiple. Down:
re-rating to the sector's cheapest quintile (13.6x). Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
9/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Growing, not yet priced for it
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
Not trading at a discount to its sector on any measure this tool computes. That is a fact about the price, not a judgement about the company — good businesses spend most of their lives fairly priced.
Size of the gap
At the Technology median EV/EBIT of 29.8 instead of its current 29.7, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 0% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 40% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- revenue compounding at 13% over three years
- net debt 0.1x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
What the sell side says
Consensus strong buy from 34 analysts, mean target 312.75 USD, 24% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Targets spread 75% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
CRUS
NASDAQ
Cirrus Logic, Inc.
Technology
- Price
- 121.09
USD
- P/E
- 14.6
- EV/EBIT
- 10.7
- Worst fall
- 97.5%
- Volatility
- 61.9%
- Below high
- 32.3%
+174%
/
-22%
over 5:1
Up: at the Technology median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
11/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Cheap and healthy
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 10.7 against a Technology median of 29.8 — 64% below peers. Free cash flow yield 12.0%. Trading 32% below its all-time high set 2026-06-03.
Size of the gap
At the Technology median EV/EBIT of 29.8 instead of its current 10.7, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 157% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 30% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- net debt -1.4x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
- Altman Z 12.2 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Only 4 analyst estimate(s) — thin coverage
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 4 analysts, mean target 165.00 USD, 36% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Targets spread 42% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
DLO
NASDAQ
DLocal Limited
Technology
- Price
- 14.17
USD
- P/E
- 21.2
- EV/EBIT
- 16.2
- Worst fall
- 90.0%
- Volatility
- 73.0%
- Below high
- 78.1%
+86%
/
-22%
3.9:1
Up: at the Technology median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
10/12
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intact
Against it — 1 flag
Debt has risen relative to assets every year for three years.
Read off the statements over three years, not
from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell
you is whether management already has an answer.
The 12 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 16.2 against a Technology median of 29.8 — 46% below peers. Free cash flow yield 10.2%. Trading 78% below its all-time high set 2021-08-24.
Size of the gap
At the Technology median EV/EBIT of 29.8 instead of its current 16.2, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 75% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 177% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- revenue compounding at 38% over three years
- net debt -1.8x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
- Altman Z 4.6 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus strong buy from 10 analysts, mean target 18.35 USD, 29% above the current price. Revisions over the last quarter have been net positive, which is the part of analyst output the evidence actually supports.
Targets spread 35% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 228 days old