Sorted by gap size. The gap is the distance to the sector
median multiple, not expected return — and the widest gaps are usually the ones
the market has the best reason for. This order puts the most heavily discounted
names first, which is also where value traps live. The evidence order exists
because of that.
BCRX
NASDAQ
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Healthcare
- Price
- 9.79
USD
- P/E
- 9.5
- EV/EBIT
- 7.7
- Worst fall
- 97.7%
- Volatility
- 82.1%
- Below high
- 70.4%
+223%
/
-27%
over 5:1
Up: at the Healthcare median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
11/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intactGrowing, not yet priced for itCheap and healthy
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 7.7 against a Healthcare median of 23.0 — 66% below peers. Free cash flow yield 12.9%. Trading 70% below its all-time high set 2000-08-25.
Size of the gap
At the Healthcare median EV/EBIT of 23.0 instead of its current 7.7, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 211% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 760% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- revenue compounding at 48% over three years
- net debt 0.5x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus strong buy from 11 analysts, mean target 20.82 USD, 113% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Targets spread 96% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Implied upside of 113% is unusually high. The evidence runs the other way here: stocks with the most optimistic targets tend to underperform, because the optimism bias is real and priced-in slowly. Read this as a caution, not an opportunity.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 231 days old
PRDO
NASDAQ
Perdoceo Education Corporation
Consumer Defensive
- Price
- 32.62
USD
- P/E
- 12.8
- EV/EBIT
- 6.9
- Worst fall
- 97.1%
- Volatility
- 53.5%
- Below high
- 50.8%
+106%
/
-19%
over 5:1
Up: at the Consumer Defensive median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
11/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intactCheap and healthy
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 6.9 against a Consumer Defensive median of 16.6 — 58% below peers. Free cash flow yield 14.1%. Trading 51% below its all-time high set 2004-04-21.
Size of the gap
At the Consumer Defensive median EV/EBIT of 16.6 instead of its current 6.9, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 106% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 35% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- revenue compounding at 7% over three years
- net debt -1.9x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Only 1 analyst estimate(s) — thin coverage
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 1 analysts, mean target 44.00 USD, 35% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Only 1 analyst estimate(s) — too few for a consensus to mean much.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 231 days old
ADBE
NASDAQ
Adobe Inc.
Technology
- Price
- 274.00
USD
- P/E
- 15.3
- EV/EBIT
- 12.1
- Worst fall
- 79.9%
- Volatility
- 48.0%
- Below high
- 60.2%
+139%
/
-25%
over 5:1
Up: at the Technology median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on current earnings estimates, and analysts have been cutting them. The bet is that the cuts are finished.
Strong case
11/12
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intactCheap and healthy
Against it — 2 flags
Debt has risen relative to assets every year for three years.
Analysts have been cutting more than raising this quarter.
Read off the statements over three years, not
from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell
you is whether management already has an answer.
The 12 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 12.1 against a Technology median of 26.9 — 55% below peers. Free cash flow yield 9.0%. Trading 60% below its all-time high set 2021-11-19.
Size of the gap
At the Technology median EV/EBIT of 26.9 instead of its current 12.1, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 122% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 63% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- revenue compounding at 11% over three years
- net debt 0.0x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus hold from 34 analysts, mean target 269.72 USD, 2% below the current price. Revisions over the last quarter have been net negative — the sell side is marking this down.
Targets spread 70% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Trading 2% above the consensus target — the sell side thinks it is expensive.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 262 days old
PYPL
NASDAQ
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Financial Services
- Price
- 60.99
USD
- P/E
- 10.0
- EV/EBIT
- 7.7
- Worst fall
- 87.3%
- Volatility
- 38.5%
- Below high
- 80.1%
+57%
/
-37%
1.5:1
Up: at the Financial Services median multiple. Down:
re-rating to the sector's cheapest quintile (4.8x). Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
10/12
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intactCheap and healthy
The 12 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 7.7 against a Financial Services median of 9.5 — 19% below peers. Free cash flow yield 10.7%. Trading 80% below its all-time high set 2021-07-23.
Size of the gap
At the Financial Services median EV/EBIT of 9.5 instead of its current 7.7, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 23% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 28% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 9/9 — accounts improving year on year
- revenue compounding at 6% over three years
- net debt -0.1x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus hold from 33 analysts, mean target 59.68 USD, 2% below the current price. Revisions over the last quarter have been net positive, which is the part of analyst output the evidence actually supports.
Targets spread 187% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Trading 2% above the consensus target — the sell side thinks it is expensive.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 231 days old
NICE
NASDAQ
NICE Ltd.
Technology
- Price
- 100.62
USD
- P/E
- 9.6
- EV/EBIT
- 7.9
- Worst fall
- 93.2%
- Volatility
- 44.2%
- Below high
- 68.1%
+253%
/
-24%
over 5:1
Up: at the Technology median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
11/12
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intactCheap and healthy
The 12 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 7.9 against a Technology median of 26.9 — 71% below peers. Free cash flow yield 11.2%. Trading 68% below its all-time high set 2021-11-15.
Size of the gap
At the Technology median EV/EBIT of 26.9 instead of its current 7.9, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 228% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 17% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- revenue compounding at 11% over three years
- net debt -0.4x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
- Altman Z 4.9 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 13 analysts, mean target 125.85 USD, 25% above the current price. Revisions over the last quarter are balanced.
Targets spread 56% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 231 days old
ERIC
NASDAQ
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)
Technology
- Price
- 10.21
SEK
- P/E
- 1.2
- EV/EBIT
- 0.4
- Worst fall
- 98.6%
- Volatility
- 44.4%
- Below high
- 86.0%
No two-sided case — see the bet below.
What you'd be betting onImplied upside of 3507% is too large to trust. At this size the likeliest explanations are a data error or earnings that are about to fall, not an opportunity the market missed. Verify EBIT and market cap against the filings before reading anything else here.
Strong case
9/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Cheap and healthy
Against it — 1 flag
Revenue has declined every year for three years.
Read off the statements over three years, not
from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell
you is whether management already has an answer.
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 0.4 against a Technology median of 26.9 — 99% below peers. Free cash flow yield 180.0%. Trading 86% below its all-time high set 2000-03-03.
Size of the gap
At the Technology median EV/EBITDA of 19.1 instead of its current 0.3, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about n/a more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 33% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9 — accounts improving year on year
- net debt -0.3x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
- operating margin 17%
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
mean target 9.67 SEK, 5% below the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Targets spread 35% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Trading 5% above the consensus target — the sell side thinks it is expensive.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 231 days old
- EV/EBIT below 1 — almost always a data error, not a bargain
CARG
NASDAQ
CarGurus, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
- Price
- 37.08
USD
- P/E
- 21.2
- EV/EBIT
- 13.5
- Worst fall
- 78.7%
- Volatility
- 50.5%
- Below high
- 33.7%
+45%
/
-25%
1.8:1
Up: at the Consumer Cyclical median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
10/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Growing, not yet priced for it
Against it — 1 flag
Debt has risen relative to assets every year for three years.
Read off the statements over three years, not
from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell
you is whether management already has an answer.
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 13.5 against a Consumer Cyclical median of 18.6 — 27% below peers. Free cash flow yield 8.1%. Trading 34% below its all-time high set 2018-09-27.
Size of the gap
At the Consumer Cyclical median EV/EBIT of 18.6 instead of its current 13.5, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 38% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 51% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- net debt 0.0x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
- Altman Z 10.6 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 12 analysts, mean target 41.50 USD, 12% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 231 days old
ETOR
NASDAQ
eToro Group Ltd.
Financial Services
- Price
- 29.16
USD
- P/E
- 10.7
- EV/EBIT
- 3.7
- Worst fall
- 67.4%
- Volatility
- 60.8%
- Below high
- 61.6%
+108%
/
-12%
over 5:1
Up: at the Financial Services median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
9/11
Most of what can be measured checks out
Growing, not yet priced for it
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 3.7 against a Financial Services median of 9.5 — 61% below peers. Free cash flow yield 28.5%. Trading 62% below its all-time high set 2025-06-09.
Size of the gap
At the Financial Services median EV/EBIT of 9.5 instead of its current 3.7, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 74% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 144% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- revenue compounding at 30% over three years
- net debt -4.0x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
- Altman Z 12.8 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 14 analysts, mean target 49.79 USD, 71% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Targets spread 110% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Implied upside of 71% is unusually high. The evidence runs the other way here: stocks with the most optimistic targets tend to underperform, because the optimism bias is real and priced-in slowly. Read this as a caution, not an opportunity.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- only 319 days of price history — drawdown vs high is unreliable
- latest statements are 231 days old
ACGL
NASDAQ
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Financial Services
- Price
- 98.75
USD
- P/E
- 7.7
- EV/EBIT
- 4.8
- Worst fall
- 54.7%
- Volatility
- 28.9%
- Below high
- 9.6%
+112%
/
-18%
over 5:1
Up: at the Financial Services median multiple. Down:
EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
7/8
Most of what can be measured checks out
Cheap and healthy
The 8 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 4.8 against a Financial Services median of 9.5 — 49% below peers. Free cash flow yield 24.7%.
Size of the gap
At the Financial Services median EV/EBIT of 9.5 instead of its current 4.8, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 71% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 28% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- revenue compounding at 26% over three years
- operating margin 27%
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 19 analysts, mean target 111.87 USD, 13% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 231 days old
NTES
NASDAQ
NetEase, Inc.
Communication Services
- Price
- 126.00
CNY
- P/E
- 2.4
- EV/EBIT
- -2.1
- Worst fall
- 96.4%
- Volatility
- 55.8%
- Below high
- 19.3%
No two-sided case — see the bet below.
What you'd be betting onNot enough peer data to price a downside — treat the upside figure as unbounded on the wrong side.
Strong case
9/9
Most of what can be measured checks out
Cheap and healthy
The 9 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
P/E of 2.4 against a Communication Services median of 14.9 — 84% below peers.
Size of the gap
No usable re-rating gap: the multiple is at or above its sector median, or the inputs were missing.
Business still intact
- ROIC 692% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- revenue compounding at 5% over three years
- net debt -4.1x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus strong buy from 32 analysts, mean target 162.02 CNY, 29% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Targets spread 42% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 231 days old
PEGA
NASDAQ
Pegasystems Inc.
Technology
- Price
- 33.73
USD
- P/E
- 14.1
- EV/EBIT
- 18.4
- Worst fall
- 94.8%
- Volatility
- 64.4%
- Below high
- 53.4%
+54%
/
-27%
2.0:1
Up: at the Technology median multiple. Down:
re-rating to the sector's cheapest quintile (13.2x). Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on current earnings estimates, and analysts have been cutting them. The bet is that the cuts are finished.
Strong case
10/12
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intact
Against it — 1 flag
Analysts have been cutting more than raising this quarter.
Read off the statements over three years, not
from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell
you is whether management already has an answer.
The 12 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 18.4 against a Technology median of 26.9 — 32% below peers. Free cash flow yield 9.4%. Trading 53% below its all-time high set 2021-02-12.
Size of the gap
At the Technology median EV/EBIT of 26.9 instead of its current 18.4, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 43% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 51% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9 — accounts improving year on year
- revenue compounding at 10% over three years
- net debt -1.1x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 9 analysts, mean target 42.98 USD, 27% above the current price. Revisions over the last quarter have been net negative — the sell side is marking this down.
Targets spread 81% of the mean — analysts disagree sharply, and consensus loses its information content when they do.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 231 days old
VRSK
NASDAQ
Verisk Analytics, Inc.
Industrials
- Price
- 185.40
USD
- P/E
- 26.7
- EV/EBIT
- 20.1
- Worst fall
- 50.8%
- Volatility
- 23.0%
- Below high
- 41.7%
+12%
/
-53%
0.2:1
Up: at the Industrials median multiple. Down:
re-rating to the sector's cheapest quintile (10.5x). Both are arithmetic on today's earnings —
neither is a probability.
What you'd be betting onThe case rests on earnings holding and the multiple normalising. The question the numbers cannot answer is why the market disagrees — that is in the filings and the news.
Strong case
10/12
Most of what can be measured checks out
Fallen, business intact
Against it — 1 flag
Debt has risen relative to assets every year for three years.
Read off the statements over three years, not
from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell
you is whether management already has an answer.
The 12 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 20.1 against a Industrials median of 21.2 — 5% below peers. Trading 42% below its all-time high set 2025-06-04.
Size of the gap
At the Industrials median EV/EBIT of 21.2 instead of its current 20.1, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 6% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 34% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- revenue compounding at 7% over three years
- net debt 1.6x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 17 analysts, mean target 237.71 USD, 28% above the current price. Revisions over the last quarter have been net positive, which is the part of analyst output the evidence actually supports.
Price target levels are shown as context only and
never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the
most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part
that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 231 days old