- Price
- 30.28 USD
- P/E fy
- 17.3
- EV/EBIT
- 11.0
- EBIT chg
- 45.0%
- Volatility
- 50.2%
- Below 1y high
- 22.4% 9mo
Up: at the Consumer Cyclical median multiple. Down: EBIT falling 25% at today's multiple. Both are arithmetic on today's earnings — neither is a probability.
Not enough quarterly data to say whether earnings held up while the price fell.
Most of what can be measured checks out
Against it — 1 flag
Read off the statements over three years, not from any view about the company's prospects. What the numbers cannot tell you is whether management already has an answer.
The 11 criteria
Valuation
- Cheaper than sector peers
- EV/EBIT under 15
- Free cash flow yield over 5%
Quality
- ROIC over 10%
- Operating margin over 10%
- Gross profit over 20% of assets
- Piotroski F-Score 7 or better
Balance sheet
- Net debt under 2.5x EBITDA
- Altman Z above 2.6
- Free cash flow positive
Direction
- Revenue growing over three years
- Analyst revisions not negative
Why it's cheap
EV/EBIT of 11.0 against a Consumer Cyclical median of 17.5 — 37% below peers. Free cash flow yield 9.9%. Trading 46% below its all-time high set 2018-09-27.
Size of the gap
At the Consumer Cyclical median EV/EBIT of 17.5 instead of its current 11.0, and with earnings unchanged, the equity would be worth about 59% more. That is the size of the gap, not a forecast that it closes.
Business still intact
- ROIC 51% — still earning above a plausible cost of capital
- free cash flow positive
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — accounts improving year on year
- net debt 0.0x EBITDA — balance sheet not forcing anything
- Altman Z 9.3 — outside the distress zone
What this can't see
- Why the market is discounting this — needs the filings and the news
- Whether earnings are about to fall and justify the current multiple
- Data warnings on this row — see caveats below
What the sell side says
Consensus buy from 12 analysts, mean target 41.50 USD, 37% above the current price. No revision activity in the last quarter.
Price target levels are shown as context only and never feed the score. Targets are reached roughly half the time and the most optimistic ones tend to underperform. Revision direction is the part that carries information.
Data caveats
- latest statements are 290 days old